Turkey's Place on the Thanksgiving Table
As Thanksgiving approaches on November 27, the iconic turkey remains a centerpiece for many American families. The National Turkey Federation estimates that nearly 30 million turkeys will be consumed this holiday, a staggering number that nearly matches the population of Texas. Despite its enduring presence, the turkey industry faces significant hurdles that are reshaping holiday traditions and challenging producers across the nation.
While 89% of food and beverages for at-home Thanksgiving dinners are sourced from retail stores, data from Circana indicates that 11% of meals now include items from foodservice operators, such as pre-cooked birds or side dishes. This shift reflects changing consumer behaviors and a growing preference for convenience, which is adding pressure to traditional turkey sales during the holiday season.
Declining Demand and Supply Struggles
Turkey consumption per capita in the United States has been on a downward trend in recent years, even during the peak holiday season. According to data highlighted by the Iowa Farm Bureau, while demand for whole frozen turkeys spikes around Thanksgiving, overall interest in turkey as a protein choice is waning. Consumers are increasingly exploring a variety of protein sources for their holiday meals, creating stiff competition for turkey producers who are also grappling with higher production costs.
Compounding the issue of declining demand is a reduction in turkey supply. USDA data shows a decrease in the total number of birds available, influenced by changing consumer preferences and external factors like bird flu outbreaks. These outbreaks have disrupted supplies significantly, with posts on X noting that bird flu has led to the culling of millions of turkeys in recent years, impacting availability and contributing to price volatility.
Price Fluctuations and Industry Outlook
Wholesale turkey prices have seen dramatic changes leading up to Thanksgiving. Reports indicate that wholesale prices for frozen turkeys have risen to $1.32 per pound this year, marking a 40% increase from last year's average. However, the American Farm Bureau Federation's annual survey offers a silver lining, revealing that the overall cost of a Thanksgiving dinner has dropped by 5% compared to 2024, thanks to grocer deals and lower commodity costs for other meal components.
Butterball CEO Jay Jandrain commented on pricing trends, stating, 'Turkey prices are the same as last year or even lower ahead of Thanksgiving.' He noted that retailers are offering strong pricing to attract consumers, with turkey often used as a loss leader to draw in holiday shoppers. Despite these efforts, the long-term challenges of bird flu and shifting consumer tastes continue to threaten the stability of the turkey industry, leaving farmers and producers to navigate an uncertain future.