Unveiling a New Strategic Alliance
The recent mutual defense pact between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, signed on September 17, has sent ripples across South Asia and the Middle East. This agreement, which stipulates that any aggression against either nation will be considered an attack on both, marks a significant upgrade in their decades-old security partnership. The signing ceremony saw Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, alongside Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, formalizing the deal with a symbolic embrace.
Saudi officials have described the pact as a comprehensive defensive agreement encompassing all military means, though specific details remain classified. A senior Saudi official hinted at the broad scope of the agreement, stating, 'This is a comprehensive defensive agreement that encompasses all military means.' The pact comes at a time of heightened regional tensions, particularly following Israel's strikes on Qatar, prompting Gulf states to reassess their security alignments amid doubts about U.S. reliability as a guarantor.
India's Growing Unease Over Regional Dynamics
India has reacted with measured concern to the Pakistan-Saudi defense pact, emphasizing its wide-ranging strategic partnership with Riyadh while closely monitoring developments. The timing of the agreement is particularly sensitive, coming after a short but intense conflict between India and Pakistan in May, which brought the nuclear-armed neighbors to the brink of full-scale war. Analysts suggest that the pact could alter India's security calculus, especially if Saudi Arabia commits to defending Pakistan in a potential conflict.
Geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer noted that the agreement might shift regional power balances, while former Pakistani diplomat Hussein Haqqani indicated that missile defense could be a key component of the treaty. India's Ministry of External Affairs has reiterated its commitment to mutual interests with Saudi Arabia, but posts on X reflect public sentiment in India, with many expressing worries about potential diplomatic pressure from Saudi Arabia or continued financial support to Pakistan through loans and arms.
The pact also raises questions about broader geopolitical implications, including the impact on India's growing economic ties with Saudi Arabia. Asfandyar Mir, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, described the agreement as a 'watershed' moment for both nations, highlighting its potential to reshape regional security dynamics.
Broader Implications for Middle East and South Asia
Beyond India’s immediate concerns, the Pakistan-Saudi defense pact could redefine alliances across the Middle East and South Asia. Saudi Arabia's move signals a strategic diversification amid regional turmoil, possibly drawing in other Islamic states like Turkey for a wider alliance, as suggested by some analysts. Faisal Al Hamad, a retired Saudi Air Force Brigadier General, emphasized the pact's significance by stating, 'The agreement stipulates that a foreign aggression on one is an attack on both.'
While the agreement does not explicitly mention nuclear cooperation, speculation abounds regarding Pakistan's role as a nuclear-armed state with an estimated 170 warheads. Analysts note there is no indication of Pakistan extending a nuclear umbrella or moving weapons to Saudi Arabia, given its focus on strategic rivalry with India. However, the pact's potential to enhance Pakistan’s sense of security against India remains a point of contention in regional discussions.
As Gulf states continue to navigate complex security challenges, this agreement exemplifies an ongoing trend of diversification. The long-term impact on initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and U.S. influence in the Gulf remains uncertain, but the pact undeniably positions Pakistan and Saudi Arabia as pivotal players in an evolving geopolitical landscape.