Emerging Threat of NB.1.8.1 in the EU
A new COVID-19 variant, identified as NB.1.8.1, is anticipated to increase in prevalence across the European Union in the coming weeks, according to officials from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). This variant, which has already spread widely in mainland China earlier this year, has made its way to the United States, where it currently accounts for over a third of all reported COVID-19 cases as per a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention update on June 13.
The ECDC has been closely monitoring the situation, noting that while NB.1.8.1 is circulating at low levels within the EU and the broader European Economic Area (EEA), a rise is expected soon. The variant's emergence has also been linked to recent surges in infections in several Asian countries, including China, Hong Kong, and Singapore, prompting heightened vigilance among health authorities worldwide.
Health Risks and Vaccine Efficacy Concerns
Despite the anticipated rise in cases, ECDC officials have stated that NB.1.8.1 'is not expected to cause an increased risk to public health compared to other recently circulating Omicron-descendant SARS-CoV-2 variants.' This assessment was shared in a statement released on June 13, aiming to reassure the public about the variant's potential impact.
Regarding vaccine effectiveness, the ECDC noted that 'no clinical studies are currently available for COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness for NB.1.8.1.' However, based on the mutation profile of the variant and early laboratory studies, they anticipate 'no significant impact on vaccine effectiveness against severe disease.' This preliminary data suggests that existing vaccines should still offer substantial protection against the most serious outcomes associated with this variant.
The Global Virus Network (GVN) is also tracking NB.1.8.1, highlighting its rapid spread across Asia since its identification in January 2025. Health bodies are calling for continued vigilance as the variant gains ground in other regions, including parts of Europe and North America.
Global Spread and Calls for Preparedness
The World Health Organization (WHO) has classified NB.1.8.1 as a variant under monitoring, citing its presence in regions like the Western Pacific, Southeast Asia, and the Eastern Mediterranean. The variant has mutations that could potentially increase its transmissibility and reduce the effectiveness of certain neutralizing antibodies, according to health experts monitoring its progression.
As cases slowly rise in Europe, possibly due to waning population immunity, the ECDC and other international health organizations are urging countries to maintain robust surveillance systems. While the current outlook suggests that NB.1.8.1 may not pose a significantly greater threat than other Omicron sublineages, the situation remains fluid, and updates will be critical in managing any potential summer wave of infections across the continent.